By GottaLaff
Forecasting the Electoral Vote
Research by Tom Holbrook and Jay DeSart shows that presidential candidates "generally win states in which they hold a lead in September polls and always win when they lead outside the margin of error."
Based on this work, they project Sen. Barack Obama will beat Sen. John McCain in the Electoral College, 336 to 202. Projecting the national popular vote based on predicted state margins and assumed state-level contributions to the national vote, they expect Obama will get 51.8% of the two-party vote.
Go Al!Franken Jumps Into Lead
Two new MPR/Humphrey Institute polls show Al Franken (D) went from 9 points behind to 4 points ahead of Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) following congressional approval of the Wall Street bailout plan.
Franken now leads 41% to 37% with Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley's support at 14%.
Said pollster Lawrence Jacobs: "Norm Coleman's 9-point lead over Al Franken essentially disappears in the wake of the financial bailout that Congress passed. He is really suffering the consequences."
Bonus Obama quote:
You tell 'em, Barack star.Obama to McCain: "Say It To My Face"
In an interview on ABC News, Sen. Barack Obama called Sen. John McCain's attempts to link him to 1960s anti-war radical Bill Ayers are an attempt to "score cheap political points."
Then he issued a challenge to his rival.
Said Obama: "I am surprised that, you know, we've been seeing some pretty over-the-top attacks coming out of the McCain campaign over the last several days, that he wasn't willing to say it to my face. But I guess we've got one last debate. So presumably, if he ends up feeling that he needs to, he will raise it during the debate."
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