By GottaLaff
Via Ambinder:
The distribution and categories are based on polling, historical trends, conversations with the campaigns, and the thoughts of smart analysts in those states.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, IA (197 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: MN, NM, MI, WI, PA, NH, CO, VA (89) electoral votes)
Toss-ups: FL, OH, NV, NC, MO, IN (89) electoral votes)
Lean McCain: GA, MT, SD, WV, NE-2 (26) electoral votes)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, ND, NE 1,3,4,5 OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY, ND (137) electoral votes)
Obama: likely + leaners: 286 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners = 163 electoral votes
Tossups: 89 electoral votes
** ALL of the 2004 Kerry states are now solidly turning for Obama or they lean in his direction. New Mexico and Iowa are solidly in Obama's corner.
Colorado moves to LEAN Obama on the basis of the McCain campaign's advertising concessions there, Obama's strength in the polls, and evidence of depression within McCain's field organization.
Virginia moves to LEAN Obama.
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district moves to LEAN McCain from toss-up.
Indiana moves from LEAN McCain to TOSSUP on the basis of polling, Obama's organizational advantages, and conversations with McCain and Obama advisers.
West Virginia remains LEAN McCain.
There is no reason to move Iowa from LIKELY Obama. It's not clear why McCain is traveling to the state.
ALL of the tossups states were won by George W. Bush in 2004.
In terms of their likelihood to flip to Obama:
Iowa, New Mexico -- tier one.
Colorado, Virginia, Florida -- tier two.
Ohio, North Carolina -- tier three.
Missouri, Indiana, Montana -- tier four.
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