By GottaLaff
GObama!
Three weeks until Election Day, Obama now holds a more than 100-vote lead in NBC's latest electoral map. He's ahead of McCain 264-163, with 111 votes in the Toss-up column. Last week, Obama was up 264-174. Our changes: We moved Missouri from Lean McCain to Toss-up; Oregon and Washington from Lean Obama to Likely Obama; and West Virginia from Likely McCain to Lean McCain. Something's happening in West Virginia -- yes, West Virginia -- because of the economic angst. [...] By the way, political analyst Charlie Cook is moving West Virginia all the way to Toss-up. If that state is on the move, could Arkansas be far behind?
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (175 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, PA, WI (89 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH, VA (111 votes)
Lean McCain: MT, WV (8 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY (155 votes)
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6 comments:
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electoral-vote.com has Obama at 346 EVs. (and the Senate at 59 Dems!)
I think the drumbeat of an Obama victory is starting to be heard in far away places like West Virginia. The people there are confused, tired, angry -- yet through that, they're honest, decent folks who know that there is only one likely chance for change in Washington -- Obama. D.
David I think you are right on.And Obama reaches out and speaks to the common decency of all people. We are more alike than we are different.
West Virginia is returning to its Democratic roots. Trust me.
I haven't seen anything to indicate that Arkansas is even close, but if it is, get Bill on a plane tut sweet. If he's serious about helping out, get him a hotel room, fully stocked with some of Little Rock's finest professional "associates," and let him work the state for three weeks.
One thing that could help is the winner effect. If the race is perceived to be over, a lot of people who are fence-sitters by nature will decide to simply vote for the perceived winner. This could boost a victory by a percent or more. Usually, though, the greatest impact is made by supporters of the losing candidate deciding to just stay at home rather than "wasting their vote." This could make some states like WV, ND, or IN much more viable.
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