By Paddy
I shouldn't get this angry this early in the morning. I worked on and off for a few years in market research and I could have told you that the Newsweek Poll that showed Obama with the huge lead last week was a total statistical fluke made up of the end of primary bump and the reluctance of people to self identify as Republicans. When you do a poll, you're given a finite time to conduct it in, quotas in male and female age groups and (in political polls) quotas of political parties. You can't always fulfill all the quotas, and as such the poll is noted with the deficit. Last week's poll was weighted towards Democrats because they couldn't find enough people to self identify as Republicans.
Now obviously the Republicans have come back from their summer homes in the Hamptons and are answering their phones. There is no "loss of momentum", and believe me, McCain is not gaining traction. He can barely traction through his own votes.
Poll Shows Obama Losing Momentum
The latest Newsweek poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44% to 41%. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month's survey, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51% to 36%.
"But perhaps most puzzling is how McCain could have gained traction in the past month. To date, direct engagement with Obama has not seemed to favor the GOP nominee. McCain has announced major initiatives on energy and the economy but failed to dominate the conversation on those issues. Last week's shake-up of the campaign's senior management did little to halt calls from Republicans for a major overhaul in McCain's message. Nor did it quell the lingering suspicion among Republicans that 2008 is simply destined to be a Democratic year."
But none of these realities will keep the cable talking heads from clucking their tongues and yakking it up over "Loss Of Glow" or the right wing talkers from ignoring their own protests last week over the poll to claim the same.
**NOTE** And like clockwork I can hear Pat Buchanan in the other room wailing about Obama's "failure to seal the deal" and "A loss of 12 points in one week? Something is very wrong". Sigh.
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