Senate outlook for Republicans: Not so good, "running scared"

By GottaLaff

How very unfortunate:

That prospect is a window onto a remarkable political trend that has been eclipsed by the fireworks surrounding the 2008 presidential contest: Democrats are running strong Senate campaigns in states such as Mississippi, Alaska and North Carolina that Republicans have long taken for granted.

The outlook for the GOP is so grim that party leaders have readily conceded there is no chance they can regain control of the Senate in 2008, even though Democrats' current majority is slim, 51-49.

"If you have an R in front of your name, you better run scared," said Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who says the party will do well if it holds its losses to three or four seats.

Who'd-a thunk it:

The Mississippi race between Democratic former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove and Republican Sen. Roger Wicker distills the wide range of factors that have put congressional Republicans in their weakest position since the Watergate scandal of the 1970s.

I love all things distilled: Water, wide ranges of factors that put Republicans in a weak position... Okay, never mind the distilled water.

Barack Obama's presidential campaign has generated a big boost in Democratic voter registration, especially among African Americans, who make up more than a third of Mississippi's population. Other quirks, such as ethics scandals, are putting more Republican Senate seats at risk than seemed likely a year ago.

"Quirks"? All those scandals were "quirks"?

In June 2007, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report identified only one race for a Republican Senate seat as a real tossup. Now it identifies seven Republican seats as at risk.

Now about that 50-state strategy that the corporate media loves to diss:

"Big changes don't happen without big Senate majorities," Obama wrote in a recent letter urging Democrats to contribute to Senate campaign coffers.

For now, most political analysts are predicting a Democratic gain of four to eight seats, which would leave the party short of the 60-vote threshold. But Republicans are worried, because bigger gains are not out of the question: Democratic fundraising is strong and the battlefield is heavily tilted against the GOP.

There was a chart that lays all of this out beautifully, but I can't find it on the on line version. If I do, I'll post it as an update.