Poll: Public's View of the Economy is Improving

Note that the President's approval is up, especially with independents. Nice.

Americans are more optimistic about the future of the economy than they were last month, according to a new CBS News/ New York Times poll. Forty-one percent of Americans now say the economy is improving, up eight points from April and more than at any time during this recession. Just 15 percent think the economy is getting worse, according to the poll, conducted April 28 - May 2.

There has also been a small bump in President Obama's approval rating on the economy. In a five-point increase from last month, 48 percent now approve of the job he's doing on the economy.

(snip)

Most Democrats (77 percent) approve of the president's handling the economy, while most Republicans disapprove (86 percent). Independents are divided: 46 percent approve, while 45 percent disapprove. Last month, more independents disapproved than approved of how Mr. Obama was handling the economy.

VIDEO- Crist Switcheroo: "Our political system is broken"

By GottaLaff

Via The Daily Beast:

It's official: Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida will be running for the U.S. Senate as an independent. "[The people have] had enough of political fighting," he said. "They're tired of the games and the name-calling and the politics of destruction." CNN

Sources: Crist to run as Independent

By GottaLaff

Via an e-mail alert from Fox. So far, this is all they are reporting:

Charlie Crist to Run as Independent in Florida Senate Race, Sources Tell Fox News

But will it do any good....

Sources: Crist Will Run as an Independent

By GottaLaff

The "big tent" Rushpublic party is very skilled one thing: pushing members right out of that big tent. You're either far right or you're wrong... except in the states in which being a not-extremist pays off.

Apparently Florida isn't one of those:

"Reliable sources" tell the Southern Political Report that Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) "is preparing to announce sooner rather than later that he will leave the GOP and continue his run for Senate as an independent. Sources add that the speech Crist will use in his announcement is now being drafted."

"The only thing that likely would stop a Crist independent run now is for the pressure from disillusioned Republicans and longtime Crist supporters to put so much pressure on him not to run at all that he relents. That pressure is mounting almost by the hour. Or that pressure could only speed up his party switch."

Maybe he can initiate a Florida for Crist Party. I'm sure Joe Lieberman would be more than happy to give him a few pointers.

Are Independents Turning from Republicans?

Or maybe the Teabaggers have finally achieved our erm, their goal? Via Taegan-

A new Democracy Corps poll finds Republicans may have crossed a line with independent voters.

Specifically, favorability ratings among independents for incumbent Republican members of Congress has dropped by 11 points in the last month, to just 42%. The generic congressional ballot shows Republicans dropping 12 points among independents.

Stan Greenberg: "Why? Independent voters may have been stirred by Senator Jim Bunning's one-man filibuster that stopped work sites and unemployment checks. They may have noticed the Republicans' last stand for the insurance companies, just as one of the largest insurers, WellPoint, raised its rates 39 percent."

Scott Brown bucks party to end filibusters

By GottaLaff

Get a load of Mr. Independence:

Brown took to the Senate floor Tuesday to announce he would vote for cloture, or to end a Republican filibuster, on a bill extending unemployment benefits and tax credits. This, despite the fact he opposes the bill and technically the filibuster helped his cause.

"I have very serious concerns about the overall cost of the bill," Brown told the chamber, "but my vote for cloture signals that I believe we need to keep the process moving." He also said, "there has been a week of debate and allowing this bill to receive an up-and-down vote, would be a step, I feel, in the right direction."

With Brown’s help, the nearly $140 billion bill cleared the procedural hurdle on a vote of 66-34, setting it up for passage.

I keep waiting for another shoe to drop. I'm not even sure what that meant, but suffice it to say Brown makes me uneasy. Maybe it's the SenatorFold, or the $750 pink leather shorts.

However, his two helpful votes are greatly appreciated.

Crist Ready to Leave Republican Party?

By GottaLaff

Independents are all the rage this year. Just ask Michael Smerconish:

The Hill makes the case that Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R), trailing badly in a tough Republican primary, is more and more likely to run for Senate as an independent.

Crist has recently stood up for President Obama on Fox and Friends and is beginning to defend the stimulus once again. He has also "parted ways with some key campaign staff" over the past few weeks.

Wave bye bye to the Party of No, Charlie.

The party's over: Michael Smerconish quits Republican party

By GottaLaff

I'm watching Smerconish, newly "independent", on MSNBC now. Here's the story of his defection in his own words:

The national GOP is a party of exclusion and litmus tests, dominated on social issues by the religious right, with zero discernible outreach by the national party to anyone who doesn't fit neatly within its parameters. Instead, the GOP has extended itself to its fringe while throwing under the bus long-standing members like New York Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, a McCain-Palin supporter in 2008 who told me she voted with her Republican leadership 90 percent of the time before running for Congress last fall. [...]

Where political parties once existed to create coalitions and win elections, now they seek to advance strict ideological agendas. [...]

Collegiality is nonexistent today, and any outreach across an aisle is castigated as weakness by the talking heads who constantly stir a pot of discontent. So vicious is the political climate that within two years, Sen. John McCain has gone from GOP standard-bearer to its endangered-species list. All of which leaves homeless those of us with views that don't stack up neatly in any ideological box the way we're told they should. [...]

I think President Obama is earnest, smart, and much more centrist than his tea party caricature suggests. He has never been given a fair chance to succeed by those who openly crow about their desire to see him fail (while somehow congratulating one another on their relative patriotism).

Well said.

And he nailed it on Obama's being more centrist. I've been saying that since 2007, but the "liberal" label has stuck, because the media/punditiots insist on doing their misleading thing.

Traficant Leaves Democratic Party

By GottaLaff

Traficant may be about to leave the Democratic party, but his hair is already independent:

Former Rep. James Traficant "says he's leaving the Democratic Party and considering a run for office as an independent," the AP reports.

"He called it a 'painful decision' to leave the Democratic Party but says he feels the leadership of the party is headed in the wrong direction. He says he's not referring to President Barack Obama, but to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid."

Gosharooty how we'll miss him.

I'm sure he'll be a big hit. What a catch. Independents will embrace him the way Palin embraces the English language.

A Big Enthusiasm Gap

Need to make sure that the cheerleading starts early because these are some scary numbers.

The latest DailyKos/Research 2000 poll finds more evidence of a growing enthusiasm gap between the two major political parties: 81% of Republicans said they would definitely or probably vote in next year's elections as compared to just 65% of independents and 56% of Democrats.

Obama Not Losing Independents

Before it becomes conventional wisdom? From the way the bobbleheads talk it is already CW. Via Taegan-

Charles Franklin notes there have been several articles about President Obama losing support among independents.

"But support for Obama has not plummeted among independents, and that needs to be clarified before it becomes erroneous conventional wisdom... Claims of abandonment of Obama by independents (or lib-Dems or con-Dems) are substantially exaggerated over the past three months. Significant decline from May through August, yes indeed among Inds and Reps, but that trend halted in August."

Will Senator Bernie Sanders be the spoiler?

By GottaLaff

I have nothing but admiration for Bernie Sanders. I listen to him every Friday morning on the Brunch with Bernie segment of the Thom Hartmann Show. He is not only on the right side of the issues (as in correct, not the right side of the aisle), he's a decent, straightforward guy who listens.

He is also highly principled:

At a time when most attention is being paid to the Senate’s other, more well-known Independent, Connecticut’s Joe Lieberman, it is Sanders who could end up playing spoiler for Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). As Reid struggles to find 60 votes that will unite on procedural votes, his party’s centrists are pulling the healthcare bill politically rightward while Sanders is staking out a far-left position.

Asked if he will support Democrats on procedural votes once the healthcare bill hits the Senate floor, Sanders was repeatedly noncommital, twice telling The Hill that he intends to push for a bill that includes a government-run, public-option insurance component and refusing to guarantee his support on cloture votes.

“All I’ll say for now is that I want the strongest public option possible in the bill,” Sanders said. “Beyond that, we’re going to have to look at what develops.” [...]

Democratic leaders say Sanders behaves differently from the party’s other centrists, such as Evan Bayh (Ind.), because Sanders at least usually notifies leadership whenever he intends to cast a procedural vote against leaders’ wishes. Bayh often doesn't. [...]

Yet since Sanders usually follows the lead of Democratic leaders, other observers say he is likely simply being stubborn as part of an effort to win some kind of concession for his state, as many senators do.

Whether he eventually falls in line or not, at least he's taking a strong stand for all the right things. If more Democrats did that, we might actually win once in awhile.

Cartoon of the Day

Click to enlarge, via.

Poll: Independents Trust Obama — Not GOP — On Big Issues

Greg gets the good polls.

This week’s big Washington Post poll asked respondents who they trust to handle health care, the economy, the budget deficit, and terrorism. The poll didn’t include a partisan breakdown, but WaPo’s polling director sent it over to us, and here’s where indys stand:

* On health care, 51% of indys trust Obama, and 26% trust GOPers in Congress.

* On the economy, 51% of indys trust Obama, and 31% trust the GOP.

* On the budget deficit, 52% of indys trust Obama, and 30% trust the GOP.

* And on terrorism, 53% of indys trust Obama, and 36% trust the GOP.

The Political Middle Grows

So in other words, the socially moderate Republicans are abandoning the party for Democrats. Nice. Via Taegan-

Pew Research: "The proportion of independents now equals its highest level in 70 years. Owing to defections from the Republican Party, independents are more conservative on several key issues than in the past. While they like and approve of Barack Obama, as a group independents are more skittish than they were two years ago about expanding the social safety net and are reluctant backers of greater government involvement in the private sector. Yet at the same time, they continue to more closely parallel the views of Democrats rather than Republicans on the most divisive core beliefs on social values, religion and national security."

Independents Take Center Stage in Obama Era

Much good reading here. Via Taegan.

A fascinating Pew Research report on political party affiliation trends finds that 36% of Americans say they are independents, 35% are Democrats, while just 23% are Republicans.

The proportion of independents now equals its highest level in 70 years. In contrast, the professed affiliation with the Republican party "is the lowest in at least a quarter century. Moreover, on nearly every dimension the Republican Party is at a low ebb -- from image, to morale, to demographic vitality."

The overall gap between the two parties in political values "has hit another new high, with widening differences emerging over the government's overall performance and its responsibilities to the poor. In the wake of the election, Republicans have swung to a much more critical view of government while more Democrats take a positive view than at any previous point in the 22-year history of this study."

As to be expected, the political values of independents "are mixed and run counter to orthodox liberal and conservative thinking about government. Over the past two years, both Republicans and independents have become more wary of expanding the social safety net. However, most independents join with most Democrats in saying that a free market economy needs government regulation to best serve the public interest... But independents continue to be much closer to Democrats than to Republicans with respect to social values, religiosity and beliefs about national security."

Poll-itics: Independents Not Turned Off By Partisanship

By GottaLaff

Hey, whatever turns you, um, not off...

The poll finds that there’s been a sharp drop in the number of Independents who see the parties as working together. Only one-fourth of Indys say this, a big tumble from the 49% who said this in January.

Despite this, however, approval of Obama among independents has held steady, and approval of Congress among them has jumped substantially. A solid majority of 56% of independents approve of Obama’s performance. And 47% of independents approve of Congress’ performance, up 15 points since January.

I don’t want to conclude too much from this. But it’s pretty hard to reconcile numbers like these with the claim that partisanship is a “turnoff” to those much-discussed Indy voters.

Poll-itics: Obama leads among white independents

By GottaLaff

GObama!

Barack Obama has taken a slight lead with white independent voters for the first time in the presidential race, positioning him to capture a key demographic group that has eluded recent Democratic nominees, according to a Politico analysis of independent voting patterns.

According to Gallup’s weekly average of some 6,400 registered voters, Obama now holds a 45 percent-43 percent edge over Republican John McCain with white independents. About eight in 10 independents are white.

Should Obama’s support hold, he is positioned to become the first Democrat to win white independents in a two-man race since the advent of exit polling.

Of course, that assumes that the exit polling coincides with his victory. As we know from the last two presidential elections, whoever wins the exit polls loses the election.

Democracy Corps: Independent Voters Move to Obama

But McCain has "reset" his campaign!! Don't they know? Via Taegan.

The latest Democracy Corps survey shows Sen. Barack Obama holding a double-digit national lead over Sen. John McCain, 50% to 40%.

Key finding: "Obama's double-digit electoral advantage is built on his surge among independent voters. In this survey, Obama edged McCain among independents by 14 points (47 to 33 percent) - his biggest margin since the beginning of the campaign. His advantage emerged as more independent voters moved away from McCain to support Bob Barr and some to support Ralph Nader."

Other national polls:

• GWU: Obama 53%, McCain 40%
• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 43%
• IBD/TIPP: Obama 45%, McCain 43%
• Diageo/Hotline: Obama 48%, McCain 42%
  
• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 42%
  
• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%
  
• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%

Michigan Independents Not Wooed By Palin

From a panel conducted by the Detroit Free Press. Seems that they ran out of kool aid in Michigan. More here.

“Sarah Palin came across as the small town girl who made good. I knew that I disagreed with her on some issues before this evening. After listening to her speech … it appears that once she makes up her mind, that is the end of it. We live in a gray world, not every answer is black and white.”


-- Diane Murphy, 42, Sterling Heights independent

“I was completely underwhelmed. She was a Republican novelty act with a sophomoric script. It was not even a speech I would expect for a someone running for the local PTA, much less for vice president.”


-- George Lentz, 66, Southfield independent