Obama In Columbus Circa Yesterday

by Cliff Schecter

Around 1:30 or so yesterday I got a call on my phone. It was Paddy. And much like many of you, I was happy to hear from her. It was hard to hear her speak though, as I was standing among 60,000 boisterous Obama supporters at the Statehouse.

It was insane.

Paddy was calling because she saw me on the tv. Yes, it is true, somehow I was allowed to join my wife, some friends, a number of congressional candidates and various others in a "VIP" section behind the candidate (I assume in my case it was an error). So we were right in the camera's view.

In any case, it was my first Obama rally. And it was everything you hear about it and more. The crowd was batting around a beach ball. People were swaying, chanting and singing. There was a sea of diverse faces as far as you could see. It was a rock concert (I will have some pictures that we took to post soon--some technical issues).

Obama and Michelle, who also spoke, did not disappoint. It was inspiring and it made a cynic like me almost believe we can really change things. I felt the same way when I went in to early vote a week ago, and waited in an hour-long line among a crowd that was easily 75% African American. People were talking, cheering and having a good time. It was good stuff.

All of this is anecdotal, but you heard it here first. Ohio goes 52% to 47% Obama (1% assorted others) on election day. We take back the state house (my gig here) allowing us to redistrict fairly (this place is gerrymandered insanely from 16 years of Republican rule) and 4 House seats. That will give us a 10 to 8 majority among that delegation.

So, in all, feeling cautiously optimistic.

5 States That Have Set Early-Voting Records

Note #2. Nice.

1. Illinois (statistics not available)
2. Indiana (409,659 as of October 29)
3. North Carolina (1,860,853 as of October 30)
4. Texas (3,008,647 as of October 29)
5. Tennessee (1,385,453 as of October 30)

Sources: ABC7 (Chicago), McClatchy, WFAA, My Fox Memphis, CNN

It Takes 4 1/2 Hours To Early Vote In Mishawaka, Indiana

Jeff left the house just after 2p on a lovely, sunny, crisp Sunday afternoon. The parking lot of our County Services building (only a few blocks from the house) was full except for one spot that Jeff got. The line of approx 400 people snaked out to the sidewalk along the street. 2 1/2 hours in line outside, Jeff finally got in the building where the line inside was all turned around on itself like Disney World. After he had been in there about a half hour, the computer went down. Long story short, he walked back in the front door just after 630p.

Now, for what he heard and saw. Probably 1/3 of the people in line were of color and the people chatting and talking were ALL talking about Obama (in a good way).

Yes, 4 1/2 hours to early vote in Northwest Indiana. And people stayed. In Indiana.

Early voting in Atlanta: The photos

By GottaLaff

UPDATE (read more here):

Georgia gives green light to racial targeting at polls

In a bold move this week, Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) announced she was sending letters to 4,770 registered voters that they may have to cast "challenge" ballots that won't be counted on election day.

In a striking announcement, she also declared that regular citizens would be able to contest the citizenship of fellow voters at the polls -- forcing them to also cast challenged ballots that won't be included in election day tallies.

Paddy and I were chatting away on the phone, and simultaneously, our mouths dropped open as we caught sight of our Tee Vee Machines airing shots of the unbelievably long lines for early voting in Atlanta.

The photos below don't even begin to capture the immensity of the turnout. If you've been to Disneyland, imagine the longest, snakiest lines on the most crowded day ever, cubed. Here's a sample of what's going on (click on images to enlarge). I hope I figured out the chronology, but if not, you get the idea:

3:45 a.m. Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Early Voting, Summit County Ohio

Sent from my little bro just now. He estimates over 1k people, over 100 voting booths. You get a ballot, fill it out, hand it over to the poll worker, then wait until they check your signature and call you back up. Then if it's okay, you cast the ballot, if it isn't you deal with that. Now granted, this is the only early voting site for the county (whose bright idea was that?), but that's still alot of people.

Note- Ethnic break up looks 50/50 to Chris. That would mean we probably get 75% of the votes there. Yeeehaaa!!

Data Points: Barack Obama Besting John McCain in Early Voting

Mmm, early voting makes me double happy.

53%: Early voters who voted for Barack Obama

34%: Early voters who voted for John McCain

15%: People who say they have already voted

52%: Registered voters who support Barack Obama

36%: Registered voters who support John McCain

Source: Pew Research Center

Florida declares emergency, extends early voting hours

Imagine the internal struggle Crist must have gone thru over this decision. I mean, we know that he's not giving McCain 100%, but extending early voting hours is technically making sure there are more votes for Obama.

Gov. Charlie Crist on Tuesday extended early voting hours across Florida to 12 hours a day.

The executive order comes after record early voting turnout has contributed to long lines at polling sites.

Current Florida law allows for early voting to be conducted eight hours a day each weekday and for a total of eight hours during the weekends.

With Crist's order, early voting sites will be open the rest of this week from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. They will be open a total of 12 hours on Saturday and Sunday, the last day of early voting.

Florida Early Voting Update: Democrats Pull Ahead

By GottaLaff

It's a start:

Prof. Michael McDonald of George Mason University is compiling early and absentee voting data from all the states, and I notice that the numbers in Florida, which had been favoring the Republicans, now favor the Democrats. (This isn't a surprise; Republicans placed a heavy emphasis on mail-in absentees and Democrats are placing a heavy emphasis on in person early voting.) (Note: no one can be certain who these folks have voted for...just what party they belong to.) 50.1% of ballots returned are absentee; 49.9% were cast in person.

Democrats: 44.7%

Republicans: 40.0%

No Party/Other: 15.2%

Trending Obama

By GottaLaff

A special treat for you:

Early Voting Trends Favor Obama

"In the 32 states that allow people to vote before Nov. 4 without a special excuse, election officials report heavy turnout as the presidential campaign reaches its frenzied last days," the Los Angeles Times reports. [...]

"A surprise is the makeup of the early voters, election experts said. In past campaign seasons, Republicans have used early voting to their advantage, mobilizing a slice of the electorate that typically skews their way. Yet a look at voters in a handful of crucial states suggests that Obama is turning out his base in numbers that surpass those of Republican John McCain."

The next one goes back to what I said here:

Todd: Virginia, Colorado Lean to Obama

Chuck Todd on NBC Nightly News: "We're going to be, this weekend, moving Virginia and Colorado - two tossup states - into the 'lean Obama' category. That moves his total to 286. ... If Nevada, which is a state that's also trending in Obama's direction, went in his column at 291, that means he could lose Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida to McCain and still be at 270. It's a big shift. It just shows you the expanded playing field for Obama has paid off. He is not banking on those big states."

GObama!

Denver Checking Whereabouts Of 11,000 Mail-In Ballots

Eleven thousand here, ten thousand there. Eh, I'm sure it won't make a difference.

DENVER -- Denver elections officials are trying to determine the whereabouts of more than 11,000 mail ballots, the Rocky Mountain News reported Friday.

Sequoia Voting Systems reported delivering 21,450 ballots to a Denver mail processing facility on Oct. 16, but the U.S. Postal Service said Friday that the facility received 10,364 ballots that day, the newspaper reported. The Postal Service said it delivered the ballots to the homes within a couple of days.

Election news round-up: Multi-Poll-itics, high black turnout in South

By GottaLaff

• North Carolina official: "We're seeing historic numbers with a historic election year."

• St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll finds: Obama 49, McCain 42

• Black turnout is strong in early voting in South:

Blacks are already surging to the polls in parts of the South, according to initial figures from states that encourage early voting -- a striking though still preliminary sign of how strongly they will turn out nationwide for Barack Obama in his campaign to become the first African-American president.

There have been predictions all year of a record black turnout for Obama. The first actual figures suggest that wasn't just talk:

--In North Carolina, blacks make up 31 percent of early voters so far, even though they're just 21 percent of the population and made up only 19 percent of state's overall 2004 vote.

--Roughly 36 percent of the early voters are black in Georgia, outpacing their 30 percent proportion of the state's population and their 25 percent share of the 2004 vote.

--Louisiana: More than 31 percent of the early voters are black, and Democrats are topping Republicans nearly 2-to-1.

--Florida: Nearly 55 percent of early voters are registered Democrats - well above their 41 percent share of the electorate in the Sunshine State.

• The Illinois senator now holds an 8-point lead over McCain in the latest CNN poll of polls, 50 percent to 42 percent. That lead is 1 point lager than it was in Wednesday's poll of polls.

• ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll: Three in 10 Plan Early Vote, Favoring Obama By Wide Margin

GObama!

Today's Early Voting Story- Grab The Kleenex

Via Ben again. He's getting some really good ones.

Upon arriving at the Hamilton County Board of Elections in Cincinnati to vote early today I happened upon some friends of my mother's — three small, elderly Jewish women. They were quite upset as they were being refused admitance to the polling location due to their Obama T-Shirts, hats and buttons. Apparently you cannot wear Obama/McCain gear into polling locations here in Ohio.... They were practically on the verge of tears.

After a minute or two of this a huge man (6'5", 300 lbs easy) wearing a Dale Earnhardt jacket and Bengal's baseball cap left the voting line, came up to us and introduced himself as Mike. He told us he had overheard our conversation and asked if the ladies would like to borrow his jacket to put over their t-shirts so they could go in and vote. The ladies quickly agreed. As long as I live I will never forget the image of these 80-plus-year-old Jewish ladies walking into the polling location wearing a huge Dale Earnhardt racing jacket that came over their hands and down to their knees!

Mike patiently waited for each woman to cast their vote, accepted their many thanks and then got back in line (I saved him a place while he was helping out the ladies). When Mike got back in line I asked him if he was an Obama supporter. He said that he was not, but that he couldn't stand to see those ladies so upset. I thanked him for being a gentleman in a time of bitter partisanship and wished him well.

After I voted I walked out to the street to find my mother's friends surrouding our new friend Mike — they were laughing and having a great time. I joined them and soon learned that Mike had changed his mind in the polling booth and ended up voting for Obama. When I asked him why he changed his mind at the last minute, he explained that while he was waiting for his jacket he got into a conversation with one of the ladies who had explained how the Jewish community, and she, had worked side by side with the black community during the civil rights movements of the '60s, and that this vote was the culmination of those personal and community efforts so many years ago. That this election for her was more than just a vote ... but a chance at history.

Mike looked at me and said, "Obama's going to win, and I didn't want to tell my grandchildren some day that I had an opportunity to vote for the first black president, but I missed my chance at history and voted for the other guy."

Early Voting Gives Obama Edge

Almost too much happy today.

"Democrats are voting early in greater numbers than their Republican counterparts in several closely contested states, reversing a pattern that favored the GOP in past elections," according to USA Today.

"The trend is evident in Ohio, North Carolina and Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico, state and county figures show. In Georgia, blacks are voting in greater numbers than they did in 2004."

"The early voting trend is about even in Colorado. Republicans claim the edge among absentee voters in Florida, but Democrats are voting in far greater numbers at early voting polling places where voters lined up this week."

Said Paul Gronke of the Early Voting Information Center: "This cannot be good news for John McCain. It's the 100-yard dash, and Obama is already 20 yards ahead."

Oh, so that's what they're doing

Booman puts two and two together since I damn well missed it.

Yesterday and today, the Obama campaign is blanketing Florida, and holding all their events within walking distance of early-voting centers.

Within walking distance? They planned all that out ahead of time and executed it? There aren't any superlatives big enough to put in BFCE for this stuff.

This is the kind of ahead-of-the-curve thinking that has defined the Obama campaign from the beginning. If the Obama administration governs the country as well as they have governed their campaign, we will very fortunate indeed.

Amen.

AUDIO: Two Radio Ads Up in North Carolina about early voting

By GottaLaff

I just got back from work, so I'm a little behind. While I catch up, here are two radio ads that Paddy spotted that target African American voters in North Carolina:

One-stop early voting began today in the swing state of North Carolina, and PowerPAC has radio ads targeting African-American voters to urge them to get out and vote early. We're going up on a half-dozen Black radio stations in six major media markets throughout the state. Take a listen to the first ad, "Protect," here:

The second ad, "Hair Salon - Part 2," is based off of an ad PowerPAC did during the Primary season in South Carolina, which got a mention on Bill Maher's "Politically Incorrect:"

GOP turnout lagging in heavy N. Carolina early voting

By GottaLaff

Wouldn't winning North Carolina be stupendously stupendous? Thursday's turnout was 40% larger than in 2004:

Thursday's first day of early voting drew record numbers across North Carolina, election officials said, as more than 100,000 people turned out. [...]

Across the state, Democrats showed the most first-day enthusiasm. Of the nearly 114,000 first-day voters, 64 percent were Democrats, 21 percent Republicans and 15 percent unaffiliateds.

African American turnout was up significantly. Black voters, who make up about 22 percent of registered voters, were 36 percent of Thursday's early voters.

In 2004, blacks made up 18.6 percent of voters.

Experts estimate that Barack Obama needs a black turnout in North Carolina of between 22 percent to 23 percent to carry the state.

I'm going to be a wreck on election night. An absolute wreck.

Obama Dominating Among Early Voters in Five Swing States

One of the best things about this really long campaign is that Nate of 538 is now a ROCKSTAR!!!

SurveyUSA has a lot of good habits as a pollster, and one of them is breaking out the results of early and absentee voting in states where such things are allowed. So far, SurveyUSA has conducted polling in five states where some form of early voting was underway. In each one, Barack Obama is doing profoundly better among early voters than among the state's electorate as a whole:

(click here to see graph)(and snip)

We should caveat that these are not hard-and-fast numbers. Estimates of early voting results are subject to the same statistical vagaries as any other sort of subgroup analysis, such as response bias and small sample sizes.

Nevertheless, Obama is leading by an average of 23 points among early voters in these five states, states which went to George W. Bush by an average of 6.5 points in 2004.

Interesting Georgia Poll Results

Not totally discouraging.

A new SurveyUSA poll in Georgia finds Sen. John McCain ahead of Sen. Barack Obama by eight points, 51% to 43%.

Interesting: "Early and absentee voting began in Georgia on 09/22/08. Among the 18% of Georgia voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads by 6 points; among those who have not yet voted, McCain leads by 11."

Early Voting Attracts Large Number of Blacks in Georgia

By GottaLaff

I'm working on another post, so I'll just copy and paste:

[I]ntriguing election news from Georgia, where the polls have been open since Sept. 22.

Of the 263,408 ballots already cast, 38% were by voters who identify themselves as African Americans, even though blacks account for just 29% of Georgia’s 5.6 million voters. Registration is up from about 4.3 million in November 2004 and about 4 million in November 2000.

John McCain holds a substantial lead over Barack Obama in most Georgia polls[...]

Black females cast 24% of the votes already in, the secretary of state’s office said.

People take advantage of early voting in Ohio

By GottaLaff

As I posted earlier, the Republicans are not happy about this:

Extra workers brought in to deal with crowd at Job Center in Akron

Voters were waiting in line at 7:30 a.m. to be the first to cast absentee ballots at the Job Center, the new location in Akron where early voting is being offered starting today.

The Summit County Elections Board brought four more workers than scheduled to the Job Center to handle this morning's crowd.

As of 10:30 a.m., about 135 people had voted at the 1040 E. Tallmadge Ave. site. Six voters both registered for the first time and voted, taking advantage of an overlap between early voting and the registration deadline that was the subject of several lawsuits.

Summit is one of only five counties in Ohio offering absentee voting at a site other than the elections board. The hope is that this will shorten the lines and long waits that boards had in the March primary and help Election Day run smoother. [...]

Absentee voting will be offered until Nov. 3, the day before the election. This is the first presidential election when Ohioans can vote absentee without a special reason.

Had this worked in favor of the Republicans, they'd be all over it like flopsweat on IRWC* Palin's brow during a Couric interview.

*"In What Respect, Charlie?"