Thursday, February 12, 2009

Senate Republicans Face Tough 2010


Via Taegan. Booman has a good round up of who's vulnerable also. And such.

Larry Sabato takes an early look at the 2010 U.S. Senate races and notes that "even after losing six net Senate seats in 2006 and another seven or eight (pending the Minnesota resolution) in 2008, the GOP still has more seats up (19) than Democrats (17) in 2010."

"Even worse for the GOP, by almost any reckoning, there are more vulnerable Republican seats than Democratic ones on the 2010 ballot. The only four elected retirees at this point are Republicans: Sam Brownback of Kansas, Kit Bond of Missouri, Mel Martinez of Florida, and George Voinovich of Ohio. The seats in Florida, Missouri, and Ohio are highly competitive-as is the New Hampshire seat, where Sen. Gregg retired early to take the Commerce post. Should Al Franken be seated, a single net gain for the Democrats could get them to the semi-magic 'sixty' that can theoretically shut off GOP filibusters. They could easily go beyond this minimal gain, if electoral conditions in 2010 permit."

Looking ahead: "There will be a big reversal in 2012, with 24 Democratic seats to only 9 Republican ones -- but that's getting too far ahead of the story."

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