The End of Polling?

By GottaLaff

Maybe someone should take a poll about this:

Mark Blumenthal writes up some interesting comments from pollster Jay Leve, founder of SurveyUSA, on the challenges facing polling firms today.

Phone polling depends on a set of assumptions: "You're at home; you have a phone; your phone has a hard-coded area code and exchange which means I know where you are; ... you're waiting for your phone to ring; when it rings you'll answer it; it's OK for me to interrupt you; you're happy to talk to me; whatever you're doing is less important than talking to me; and I won't take no for an answer -- I'm going to keep calling back until you talk to me."

However, the reality is much different: "In fact, you don't have a home phone; your number can ring anywhere in the world; you're not waiting for your phone to ring; nobody calls you on the phone anyway they text you or IM you; when your phone rings you don't answer it -- your time is precious, you have competing interests, you resent calls from strangers, you're on one or more do-not-call lists, and 20 minutes [the length of many pollsters' interviews] is an eternity."

Leve's bottom line: "If you look at where we are here in 2009, it's over... this is the end. Something else has got to come along."

How's about everyone just raises their hands and we take a count? No?

Okay, then how about Nate the Great at Five Thirty Eight Silver handle everything, and the rest of 'em pack it in?

Yep, sounds good to me. He'll come up with something. I just know he will.