Poll: Specter's party switch pays off

I get more and more queasy about Specter's change, especially after pretty solid proof that he fabricated the "I did not say I would be a loyal Democrat" statement.

A new poll shows Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) ahead in two general election match-ups following his party switch, but suggests the contest would become instantly competitive if former Gov. Tom Ridge (R ) entered the race.

The Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania voters shows Specter leading Ridge, the former governor and Homeland Security secretary, 46-43.

Specter would look much stronger, however, if the GOP nominee winds up being his 2004 primary opponent, former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.). In that matchup, Specter leads 53-33. The margin is particularly interesting given that, in previous polls when Specter was still a Republican, Quinnipiac had shown Toomey with a wide lead in their primary matchup.

Independent voters favor Specter by nine points over Toomey, but those voters flip for Ridge, preferring him by a 10-point margin over Specter.

It appears there is little nostalgia for Specter among Republicans, as he takes just 10 percent of the GOP vote against Ridge and 18 percent against Toomey.

Cartoon via.

Arlen Specter leaving the Republican party?

By GottaLaff

Via Think Progress, we learn that former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), current Club for Growth president, says he'll challenge Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) in 2010. Since Specter v. Toomey in 2004 was pretty close, trying to beat him in 2010 might not exactly be a piece-o'-cake for ol' Arlen:

“I think he has a lot of problems,” said Terry Madonna, a professor of political science at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa. “I think this is the test of lifetime.”

Madonna estimated that between 150,000 to 200,000 centrist Republicans switched registration to the Democratic Party in the 2008 election cycle, leaving the remaining GOP electorate more conservative.

If Specter were to lose the primary, his choices will be, shall we say, limited:

With a tough primary challenge looming, Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) "does not have the fall-back option of running as an independent should he lose his 2010 primary election, giving the senior lawmaker strong incentive to abandon his party this year," The Hill reports. [...]

[F]iscal and social conservatives have long viewed him as a bête noire.