Economists say recovery looks stronger than expected

Good news on a Monday morning makes me feel much better.

The recovery is shaping up to be stronger than expected and there is little risk the economy will slip back into a recession, according to USA TODAY's quarterly survey of 46 leading economists.

Yet most still say the rebound will fall short of the sharp, V-shaped upturns that often follow severe slumps, and the 9.7% jobless rate will fall slowly.

As the Fed meets to assess the economy this week, seven in 10 economists say they're more optimistic than they were three months ago.

"I think we've gotten to a point where it's a self-sustaining recovery," says Standard & Poor's chief economist David Wyss.

The experts predict growth of 3% this year, up from forecasts of 2.8% in January. In V-shaped upswings, growth is often 7% or more.

None see a return to recession by next year, and those who see some risk say it's lessened markedly.

"I feel more confident ... there'll be no relapse," says Stuart Hoffman, chief economist of PNC Financial Services Group.

Prop 8 Trial Watch: Gay marriage generates millions, expert tells court

By GottaLaff

Maybe Prop 8ers will understand dollar signs, since they can't seem to appreciate, you know, love and commitment:

Legalizing same-sex marriage would generate millions of dollars for San Francisco, the city's chief economist said Thursday, as a trial on California's gay wedding ban entered a fourth day.

Edmund Egan, who directs San Francisco's Office of Economic Analysis, said legalization of same-sex marriage would increase the intake of real estate, payroll and sales taxes and would slash the number of uninsured. [...]

Further, because married people amass more wealth than unmarried individuals, they are likely to spend more, spurring sectors of the economy.

Short and not-so-sweet: Cable Tee Vee bankrupt of economists, but not punditiots

By GottaLaff

First we learned that there is a shortage of Democratic pundits on the Tee Vee Machine. Now we see that there's a shortage of economists discussing the, you know, economy:

In a new report, Media Matters adds that economists have been largely absent from the debate on these TV programs:

[A] Media Matters for America review of the Sunday talk shows and 12 cable news programs from January 25 through February 8 found that during 139 1/2 hours of programming on Sunday mornings and weekday afternoons and evenings, of 460 total guest appearances in discussions about the economic recovery legislation and debate in Congress, only 25 were made by economists — a mere 5 percent. [...]

Matt Yglesias notes, “[I]t’s been striking to me watching things how often you’ll have what amounted to an anchor talking to a political reporter about a substantive policy question neither of them understood.”

In short, there is a shortage of expertise. That's been given short shrift, as opposed to the usual gang of punditiots, and that's the long and short of it.

John Sidney McMinus 300 Economists

By GottaLaff

If he can't even count the number of economists who "endorse" him, how can he handle an abysmal economy?

It's now clear that a good number of the 300 economists who "endorsed" John McCain's economic policies did no such thing. Many see a conflict between the costs of an extended war and McCain's promises back home; others didn't bother to read the specifics of what they were asked to sign.

It's just one embarrassing McFiasco after another. I look forward to the next hour minute time he opens his McMouth for more.