The current state of the U.S. Senate races: The details

By GottaLaff

We got an email from Mark over at 3 Blue Dudes, and he delves a little deeper into the Senate elections:

Let’s explain a little about our Methodology of how we move races. We take the polling average of the 4 MOST RECENT polls and average them together to come out with our real number of where the race is at, statistically. That prevent outliers and simple bad polls from effecting our numbers too much and shifting races around when there is no real reason to.

Ok, on to the current state of the US Senate Races.

We have listed TWO GUARANTEED DEM Pickups: Virginia and New Mexico.

Next:

TOSS UPS: We are now back to 5 Toss Ups. Each toss up is a incumbent GOP seat.

They are: Alaska, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Oregon.

More:

Other DEM Pick Ups

In Colorado, Mark Udall is looking to take the seat of retiring GOP Senator Wayne Allard. The polls here are tightening. Udall once had a commanding lead. That lead is now down to 45.25% to 38% over GOP Bob Schaffer. We moved this seat from Guaranteed Pickup to Lean DEM. 3BD Guess: Udall wins along with Obama. (+7)

RACES WE ARE WATCHING

Kentucky, Mississippi, and South Carolina.

Finally:

RACES YOU CAN IGNORE NOW

Races you can ignore now: New Jersey, Louisiana, Kansas, Maine, and Texas.

Many thanks, Mark!