Poll-itics: The Black Turnout Surge, Already In Progress

By GottaLaff

Via FiveThirtyEight's Nate the Great:

Frankly, I do think that McCain is the favorite to win a majority of undecideds (but a majority means like 55-60%, not some ridiculous fraction like 70%).

But I also think that the polls are probably undercounting Obama's decided vote, particularly among African-Americans, and young persons with cellphones.

Next, Nate the Great says:

Stop me if you've heard this one before. Although the national trackers look slightly stronger for John McCain than they did a couple days ago, Barack Obama once again had an exceptionally good day in the state-level numbers.

I increased the sensitivity of the trendline curve today, and will continue to do so over the course of the final week of the campaign. If there is any late movement, we want to be sure that we capture it. Even so, the trendline remains essentially flat, with perhaps just a slight bit (a few tenths of a point) of retreat off of Obama's peak numbers. [...]

At the state level, these numbers ought mostly to speak for themselves. We have yet more evidence that John McCain has big problems in Virginia and Colorado. And keep an eye on those Nevada numbers, because if they creep into the Virginia/Colorado range, then John McCain could very easily pull off a miracle in Pennsylvania and still lose the election.

He has more analysis here.