Indiana's electors cast their votes for Obama

Today is Electoral College day and I'm damn proud of my state. We even had the highest voter turn out since '68.

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Indiana's 11 presidential electors have formally cast their ballots for Barack Obama as the first Democrat to carry the state since 1964.

Presidential electors are gathering in state capitals across the country today for the mostly ceremonial procedure mandated by the Constitution.

The Indiana electors voted this morning in the Indiana House chambers. The ballots all were cast by Democrats who won the right to be electors with Obama's narrow Indiana victory over Republican John McCain last month.

By the way, it looks like the whole thing went off without a hitch.

Obama Likely to Win Omaha Electoral Vote

By GottaLaff

Suh-weet! GObama! Via 538's Nate the Great, and the Omaha World-Herald:

Good news for Barack Obama supporters.

His odds of bagging an electoral vote in Nebraska grew stronger this morning, with word that 10,000 to 12,000 early ballots and 5,200 provisional ballots are left to count in Douglas County.

Obama won about 61 percent of the early votes counted before Tuesday's election. If that percentage holds with the early ballots left to count, Obama stands a strong chance of winning the Omaha-area 2nd Congressional District.

Republicans did not concede defeat this morning, but they acknowledged the long odds.

John McCain held a 569-vote lead over Obama in the 2nd District at the end of Tuesday.

"I will remain cautiously hopeful but not cautiously optimistic," said Hal Daub, state director for McCain. "I'm disappointed (in the numbers). We really worked hard here, against substantial resources being poured into Nebraska."

This would represent the first time that Nebraska has split its electoral votes.

McCain 510 Electoral Votes, Obama 28

By GottaLaff

Don't panic. That title refers to a SurveyUSA map of two years ago:

Exactly two years ago, SurveyUSA completed interviews with 600 voters in every state (30,000 total interviews), asking them how they would vote in a 2008 Presidential Election between John McCain and Barack Obama. Based on those interviews, SurveyUSA was able to report that:

In November 2006, Obama carried …

1. His home state of Illinois.
2. His birth state of Hawaii.
3. The District of Columbia.

In November 2006, Obama got 28 total electoral votes.

In November 2006, John McCain carried 48 states, and rolled up 510 electoral votes.

That was then. This is now. Yes we will.

H/t: Ashen Shard

Six Election Day Wet Dreams for Democrats

By GottaLaff

Shamelessly borrowed from 23/6.com... Will you still respect me in the morning?

SIX ELECTION DAY WET DREAMS FOR DEMOCRATS

Taking Florida. There's no denying it. It's the one that got away. The one they should have had but it got ripped out of their hands. Winning Florida would be like finally getting a second chance with that woman you were impotent with, just to prove that it really was a fluke! For eight years Dems have been screaming "this kind of thing never happens to us" but no one's believed them. Not until now?

Having Florida and Ohio both. The twins! Very hot. But Ohio would really just be icing on the cake. If Dems get Florida, they wanna take their time with it. Really savor every minute of the win, give Florida their undivided attention, let it know what it's been missing all these years. But hey, no one's gonna kick Ohio out of bed for eating cookies.

Sneaking Away with Arizona. Winning Arizona is the ultimate "F You" fantasy. It's akin to winning the big game and going home with the other team's head cheerleader while their quarterback just has to stand there and watch.

Scoring big, "Reagan-Mondale" style. Except the Dems are Reagan. It's okay if this makes you feel uncomfortable because it's pretty much a rape fantasy. It's Democrats wanting to hold America down by the arms and just paint the whole thing blue. Some Democrats are creepy like that. Takes all kinds.

Karl Rove in handcuffs. There's an element of bondage to it, but Karl Rove getting arrested is actually one of the more popular elements to all types of Democratic wet dreams. He eventually just pops into the scenario wearing a pair of handcuffs. No matter what they're dreaming about, Karl Rove doing a perp walk usually ends up being the money shot.

Just plain old, missionary style 270. Look, when you've gone without for a long time, you don't need any big fancy scenarios to get off. For many Dems, they just wanna get to 270 electoral votes. Before they break out the leather and the whip cream, they really just wanna end their dry streak.

Was it good for you?

Big h/t: John Good

Poll-itics: For what it's worth electoral edition

By GottaLaff

Via Ambinder:

The distribution and categories are based on polling, historical trends, conversations with the campaigns, and the thoughts of smart analysts in those states.

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, IA (197 electoral votes)

Lean Obama: MN, NM, MI, WI, PA, NH, CO, VA (89) electoral votes)

Toss-ups: FL, OH, NV, NC, MO, IN (89) electoral votes)

Lean McCain: GA, MT, SD, WV, NE-2 (26) electoral votes)

Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, ND, NE 1,3,4,5 OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY, ND (137) electoral votes)

Obama: likely + leaners: 286 electoral votes

McCain: likely + leaners = 163 electoral votes

Tossups: 89 electoral votes

** ALL of the 2004 Kerry states are now solidly turning for Obama or they lean in his direction. New Mexico and Iowa are solidly in Obama's corner.

Colorado moves to LEAN Obama on the basis of the McCain campaign's advertising concessions there, Obama's strength in the polls, and evidence of depression within McCain's field organization.

Virginia moves to LEAN Obama.

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district moves to LEAN McCain from toss-up.

Indiana moves from LEAN McCain to TOSSUP on the basis of polling, Obama's organizational advantages, and conversations with McCain and Obama advisers.

West Virginia remains LEAN McCain.

There is no reason to move Iowa from LIKELY Obama. It's not clear why McCain is traveling to the state.

ALL of the tossups states were won by George W. Bush in 2004.

In terms of their likelihood to flip to Obama:

Iowa, New Mexico -- tier one.
Colorado, Virginia, Florida -- tier two.
Ohio, North Carolina -- tier three.
Missouri, Indiana, Montana -- tier four.

Forecasting the Electoral Vote

The reason the crazies are getting crazier. Via Taegan.

Research by Tom Holbrook and Jay DeSart shows that presidential candidates "generally win states in which they hold a lead in September polls and always win when they lead outside the margin of error."

Based on this work, they project Sen. Barack Obama will beat Sen. John McCain in the Electoral College, 336 to 202. Projecting the national popular vote based on predicted state margins and assumed state-level contributions to the national vote, they expect Obama will get 51.8% of the two-party vote.

Gramm-pa McCain's fate hangs on three states

By GottaLaff

It's down to this:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) now must win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota in order to get enough electoral votes to win the presidency, his campaign says. [...]

McCain's political director, Mike DuHaime, told reporters on a conference call three hours before debate time that the campaign plans "an aggressive" front in Maine, a solidly Democratic state that gets virtually no attention in presidential races.

The sudden attention to Maine, which is getting some of the staff McCain is moving out of Michigan, reflects what a squeaker McCain expects.

Maine is not a winner-take-all state — the only other one that splits its electoral vote is Nebraska). And McCain aides, perhaps optimistically, are suggesting he can win one electoral vote by picking up one of the Pine Tree State’s two congressional districts. [...]

McCain has very limited ways to win, with no room for error. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) still has many routes to the White House and so can afford to campaign on a much broader playing field. [...]

McCain figures that winning one of those three big remaining swing states, plus those he considers safe, would put him 10 shy of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win.

Scrounging for electoral votes now would make me very uncomfortable if I were Gramm-pa. Which I'm not. Which I'm more than a little thankful for.

H/t: TheKingFiphtin

Poll-itics: Obama's big electoral advantage edition

By GottaLaff

(via)

Karl Rove Has Obama In Desicive Electoral Map Lead

No wonder McWhiner sounded testy just now in his speech to what sounded like 12 people.

According to Karl Rove's new electoral map, Obama is leading McCain, 272-183 -- with 83 electoral votes in the toss-up category.

Note that the map is as of July 23, so it doesn't take into account the recent Quinnipiac polling** in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. But per this map -- right now -- Obama could lose every toss-up state (Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada) and still win the presidential election.

**Or the new Rasmussen.

Obama catapults ahead of McCain in electoral vote count

By GottaLaff

Here's some swell news to start the week:

Obama Becomes Nominee and Catapults Ahead of McCain

Clinton's endorsement of Obama this weekend assured him the nomination and his place in history as the first African American candidate at the top of either of the two top party tickets.

As this has been going on, Obama has extended his Electoral Vote lead over McCain to almost 70.

• Barack Obama - 303
• John McCain - 235

Here are the latest polls we updated.. And considering the small number of states that we have updated in the past week, Obama's margin over McCain may actually be much larger if all 50 states were to have had polls conducted.

But after the dust has settled a bit on Obama's party, the real race will begin and things should normalize back to a steady state.

State	#EV	Barack Obama	John McCain
New York	31	48.0	38.0
Massachusetts	12	46.0	41.0
Washington	11	52.0	36.0
Missouri	11	43.0	42.0
Minnesota	10	47.0	42.0
Connecticut	7	47.0	44.0
West Virginia	5	37.0	45.0

Obama has the electoral map edge

By GottaLaff

Map via Votemaster. It's interactive, so go there and have fun.

Encouraging news:

Chuck Todd and colleagues update their electoral map projections.

Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (153 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: ME, NJ, MN, OR, WA (47 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA, WI (138 votes)
Lean McCain: AR, GA, IN, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NC, ND (84 votes)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, KS, KY, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (116 votes)

Bottom line: "While both McCain and Obama get to 200 when adding up their base and lean states, it's clear to see that Obama has an early edge with the map. Not only does he have a stronger base than McCain does (153 votes vs. 116), but he also has more potential pick-up opportunities."

Opportunity seems to be what Obama is all about, no matter where you look. It's wonderful to peek our noses over our little blankies, shed it along with the past 8 years, and begin to see our country begin to wake up and heal. It may sound cheesy, but dawn, a new day and all the rest of those crazy hopeful words.

**NOTE-

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Hey Hillary, guess what? Obama leads McCain in electoral votes

By GottaLaff

What was that Bill Clinton was saying about electoral votes?

[F]or the first time in three months, Barack Obama leading John McCain in the electoral vote count.

• Barack Obama - 272
• John McCain - 266

The reason for the sudden shift is this: Survey USA has Obama ahead in Ohio by 9%. With Ohio's 20 electoral votes, that is a 40 EV switch.

State	#EV	Barack Obama	John McCain
California	55	47.0	40.0
Pennsylvania	21	45.0	43.0
Ohio	20	48.0	39.0
North Carolina	15	39.0	44.0
Arizona	10	39.0	50.0
Kentucky	8	32.0	57.0
Iowa	7	47.0	38.0
Mississippi	6	39.0	54.0
Nevada	5	40.0	46.0
New Hampshire	4	48.0	43.0
Montana	3	39.0	47.0

Now if only we could think of a way to prevent election fraud. From what I just heard on the Rachel Maddow Show on my way home, nothing has changed since 2004. Groundhog Day.