Obama travels, Obama leads

By GottaLaff

BFCE:

Sen. Barack Obama, his running mate and his wife have appeared at twice as many events in swing states as their Republican counterparts, which may help explain the Democrat's lead in many battleground-state polls.

In the five weeks since the fall campaign officially began, Sen. Obama, his wife, Michelle, and vice-presidential nominee Joe Biden have appeared at a total of 95 separate events in states that both sides are contesting.

Sen. John McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, have appeared at 55 events in those areas, with Cindy McCain, the nominee's wife, adding only one more to the total, according to a Wall Street Journal tally based on schedules provided by the campaigns.

The gap makes a difference in the amount of press that each ticket gets in critical markets -- and is mirrored by a similar disparity in TV advertising. Sen. Obama outspent Sen. McCain and the Republican National Committee on ads in 15 states for the week ended Oct. 4, according to the Wisconsin Advertising Project, an initiative at the University of Wisconsin. The Republicans spent more in just two states.

The effect: The Democrats are being seen much more often, in free news coverage and in paid advertising, in the states that will determine the winner. [...]

Sen. Obama's own early debate preparation was done in states he hopes to win this fall -- Florida and North Carolina -- garnering him extra local press. This week, he is prepping in Toledo, Ohio, another swing state.

The Obamas have one more thing going for them: Who really goes out of their way to see Cindy McMealTicket? Snerk.

H/t: Ellen

Forecasting the Electoral Vote

The reason the crazies are getting crazier. Via Taegan.

Research by Tom Holbrook and Jay DeSart shows that presidential candidates "generally win states in which they hold a lead in September polls and always win when they lead outside the margin of error."

Based on this work, they project Sen. Barack Obama will beat Sen. John McCain in the Electoral College, 336 to 202. Projecting the national popular vote based on predicted state margins and assumed state-level contributions to the national vote, they expect Obama will get 51.8% of the two-party vote.

New Obama Ad: 'One Word'

Ben says it's scheduled to run in the swing states, so that must mean that Indiana is a swing state since it's been on here for a couple days? Nice.

Quinnipiac: McCain Collapses in Key Swing States

I love good news in the morning.

A combination of factors -- the first presidential debate, Gov. Sarah Palin's sagging favorability and more voter confidence in Sen. Barack Obama's ability to handle the economy -- are propelling Obama to wider likely voter leads over Sen. John McCain in three key swing states, according to new Quinnipiac polls.

Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 43%

Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 42%

Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 39%

Said pollster Peter Brown: "It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign. In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania."

Reverend Sharpton's Fabulous Registration Bus Tour

BFCE. Al's pretty popular with the older AA demographic so this could be a real shot in the arm for registration.

Al Sharpton is hitting the road on a bus tour for voter registration. His goal -- to register an “estimated 9.5 million unregistered blacks nationally. The campaign is targeting Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina and Michigan, possibly pivotal states in the contest between Obama, a Democrat who would be the first black U.S. president, and Republican John McCain."