Poll-itics: African Americans motivated to vote in November

By GottaLaff

Oh em gee! I'm not sure if I can stand two upbeat news stories in one day!

First we find out that Prez O is doing well in the polls on national security. Now there's this report about African Americans being motivated to show up at the polls, even when the president isn't on the ballot:

About two-thirds of black adults in four states say they are closely following news about the upcoming midterm elections, and between 74 percent and 80 percent say they are very likely to vote, according to the poll, conducted by the nonpartisan Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. The organization surveyed 500 African-Americans in each state - Missouri, Indiana, Arkansas and South Carolina - all of which have Senate races in November.

How many of those voters follow through with their intentions will help determine if Democrats hold control of Congress.

David Bositis, a researcher at the institute who directed the poll:

"African-Americans feel like they have a real investment in President Obama ... I think it's a major motivating factor."

The economy and health care reform are the top two issues for black voters. The next step is for these very same voters to get out there and, you know, vote.

Video- New Ad Links Health Care Reform To Civil Rights Struggle To Mobilize Minorities

Some rather interesting takes on this over at Greg's, what do you all think?

Blacks in survey say race relations no better with Obama

I don't know why anyone would think that Obama's election would be an automatic panacea.

(CNN) – African-Americans really like President Obama, but more and more feel that race relations have not gotten better since he took office, a new national poll found.

Ninety-six percent of African-Americans approve of how Obama is handling his presidency, according to a CNN/Essence Magazine/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Thursday.

During the 2008 election, 38 percent of blacks surveyed thought racial discrimination was a serious problem. In the new survey, 55 percent of blacks surveyed believed it was a serious problem, which is about the same level as it was in 2000.

9,000,000

By GottaLaff

No, that number isn't the amount of hits we've received here at TPC... not yet anyway. It's all about the voters:

Ben Smith: "Turnout guru Michael McDonald has an early look at the 2008 turnout numbers, and finds that 9 million more people voted in 2008 than in 2004. He finds that black, Hispanic, and youth turnout were up notably, and that white turnout lagged."

I love this on so many levels. And oh, this just in: Guess who the party of the future is...

It's going to take an awful lot of disenfranchisement to counter this trend.

Poll-itics-- Research 2000: Chambliss Leads By Six in Georgia

By GottaLaff

From the Department of Things You Don't Want to Hear:

The latest Research 2000 poll in the Georgia U.S. Senate run off shows Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) with a six point lead over Jim Martin (D), 52% to 46%.

Key finding: "Research 2000 is speculating that the likely-voter model for the runoff election will be substantially different from the turnout model for the November election...if poll respondents mirrored those who voted on Election Day, the race would be a lot closer. However, the pollster is figuring that a lot of voters -- African-Americans in particular -- who voted for Obama in the general election will stay at home for the runoff."

What happened to GOTV? This is not good news.

Black voters, Indian tribes, big crowds for Obama

By GottaLaff

There are so many ways Barack Obama has already changed this country, and all for the better:

• As the number of black Georgians registered to vote has increased, so have the chances of a Democratic victory in the coming election, Republican and Democratic political observers said Tuesday. [...]
  

  But the state as a whole has grown faster than the number of white registered voters, giving African-Americans the chance to play a larger role in deciding who wins elections in Georgia, something pollster Matt Towery has tried to reflect in his surveys.

  Towery, a former Republican state lawmaker who is now CEO of Atlanta-based Insider Advantage, believes black voters will turn out in huge numbers to vote for Obama.[...] He has consistently shown the race between Obama and Republican John McCain to be tighter than other pollsters have found. A poll he released Tuesday had McCain leading by a single percentage point, following a poll last week showing Obama ahead by 1 point.
• [Indian t]ribes are throwing their financial weight behind his rival, Barack Obama, donating more than $1 million to support the Democratic presidential candidate's campaign. [...] The Indian vote, which has traditionally been overwhelmingly Democratic, could be pivotal in a number of swing states, notably New Mexico. It could also help Sen. Obama pick up a number of traditionally red states, such as Montana. New Mexico and other swing states -- including Nevada, North Carolina, Minnesota and Colorado -- have a higher percentage of Indians than the national average.
• Barack Obama is enjoying big crowds and a favorable political map, while Mr. McCain faces jittery supporters and poll numbers that piled up like a body count. [...] Poll numbers show Mr. Obama ahead, even in battleground states that President Bush won last time. His crowds are larger, younger and more racially diverse.

He may not win every battleground state, but for someone who hasn't gotten elected yet, he's already made a difference.

Election news round-up: Multi-Poll-itics, high black turnout in South

By GottaLaff

• North Carolina official: "We're seeing historic numbers with a historic election year."

• St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll finds: Obama 49, McCain 42

• Black turnout is strong in early voting in South:

Blacks are already surging to the polls in parts of the South, according to initial figures from states that encourage early voting -- a striking though still preliminary sign of how strongly they will turn out nationwide for Barack Obama in his campaign to become the first African-American president.

There have been predictions all year of a record black turnout for Obama. The first actual figures suggest that wasn't just talk:

--In North Carolina, blacks make up 31 percent of early voters so far, even though they're just 21 percent of the population and made up only 19 percent of state's overall 2004 vote.

--Roughly 36 percent of the early voters are black in Georgia, outpacing their 30 percent proportion of the state's population and their 25 percent share of the 2004 vote.

--Louisiana: More than 31 percent of the early voters are black, and Democrats are topping Republicans nearly 2-to-1.

--Florida: Nearly 55 percent of early voters are registered Democrats - well above their 41 percent share of the electorate in the Sunshine State.

• The Illinois senator now holds an 8-point lead over McCain in the latest CNN poll of polls, 50 percent to 42 percent. That lead is 1 point lager than it was in Wednesday's poll of polls.

• ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll: Three in 10 Plan Early Vote, Favoring Obama By Wide Margin

GObama!