Polls Show Landslide Scenario Unlikely

By GottaLaff

Now there are predictions based on unpredictable polls. Go figger:

From the fever swamps of the blogosphere to the halls of academia, there is a chorus of voices who have come to the same conclusion about the presidential election: Barack Obama is going to win in November, by something resembling a landslide.

Yet for all the breathless analysis and number-crunching that has convinced observers Obama is en route to an epic victory, there is one key historic fact that is often overlooked-most popular vote landslides were clearly visible by the end of summer. And by that indicator, 2008 doesn’t measure up.

In five of the six post-war landslides (defined as a victory of 10 percentage points or more) the eventual winner was ahead by at least 10 percentage points in the polls at the close of August, according to a Politico analysis of historical Gallup polls. Over the past week, however, Gallup’s daily tracking poll pegs Obama ahead of John McCain by a margin of 2 to 5 percentage points.

The one exception to the August rule was 1980. Ronald Reagan was trailing slightly in the August polls before surging forward to win by roughly a 10-point margin.

By comparison, the biggest post-war landslides-1964, 1972 and 1984-were signaled by a large, double-digit advantage held by the eventual winner at the close of August.

So the author's definition of a landslide is 10 points or more. Chuck Todd's is 5 or 6. Anyway, this goes on and on for awhile, until finally:

Several pollsters agreed that race is a significant factor in this election, though they count others of roughly equal influence.

“This may sound kind of harsh, but if the Democratic nominee were a white male from a red or purple state, the theory would be dead on that this would be set up, there would be a very, very high probability for a Democratic landslide,” said Brad Coker, the managing partner of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Coker said that, in his view, two factors along with race are anchoring down Obama. He cites Obama’s political inexperience and that “you’ve never had a young guy win by such a large margin, post-war.” Coker added that Obama’s ideology and geography were also factors, though of lesser importance in his view.

But even if Obama built a big lead, it would also not necessarily presage a big win. In 1976, Carter led Gerald Ford in the summer by about 20 percentage points in some polls. Ford closed in by Election Day. Carter barely pulled out a victory.

If nothing else, the contours of the 2008 political environment suggest there is still hope for Democrats who expect nothing less than a resounding victory.

“The conditions are ripe for either a near-landslide, maybe 53 percent, or a landslide,” said the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato, though he notes the race looks to be significantly closer.

Second-guessing landslides is like second-guessing veep picks. A total waste of time, but we continue to feed on it, talk about it, and snark about it.

We (and by "we", I don't mean the regular readers of this blog, who do this regularly) should be talking about that last part, how race is playing a factor... and who might be feeding that factor. And who else. And why. And how.

And then they should take a whole bunch of polls about which would be the best way to rid ourselves of people who employ such tactics, who insist on perpetuating race baiting for their own personal gain. I'd be happy to participate in a poll like that.