Economists say recovery looks stronger than expected

Good news on a Monday morning makes me feel much better.

The recovery is shaping up to be stronger than expected and there is little risk the economy will slip back into a recession, according to USA TODAY's quarterly survey of 46 leading economists.

Yet most still say the rebound will fall short of the sharp, V-shaped upturns that often follow severe slumps, and the 9.7% jobless rate will fall slowly.

As the Fed meets to assess the economy this week, seven in 10 economists say they're more optimistic than they were three months ago.

"I think we've gotten to a point where it's a self-sustaining recovery," says Standard & Poor's chief economist David Wyss.

The experts predict growth of 3% this year, up from forecasts of 2.8% in January. In V-shaped upswings, growth is often 7% or more.

None see a return to recession by next year, and those who see some risk say it's lessened markedly.

"I feel more confident ... there'll be no relapse," says Stuart Hoffman, chief economist of PNC Financial Services Group.

Pending home sales rise 8.2 percent in February

Spread it around.

WASHINGTON – The number of buyers who agreed to purchase previously occupied homes rose sharply in February, far exceeding expectations, in a sign that the housing market may be coming back from the winter doldrums.

The National Association of Realtors said Monday its seasonally adjusted index of sales agreements rose 8.2 percent from January to a February reading of 97.6. January's reading was revised slightly downward to 90.2.

The report "may signal the early stages of a second surge of home sales this spring," said Lawrence Yun, the trade group's chief economist.

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected the index would fall slightly to 90.3. The index is considered a barometer for future sales activity because there is typically a one- to two- month lag between a signed sales contract and a completed deal.

A reading of 100 is equal to the level of sales activity in 2001, when the index started.

Added- More good news-
The U.S. service sector grew faster than expected in March as the economy adds jobs and consumer spending slowly increases.

Added Again- More more good news-
Non-manufacturing activity grew in March

Unemployment rate stays at 9.7 percent, 162,000 jobs gained

I'm just thrilled it isn't worse.

The American economy added 162,000 jobs last month, the New York Times reports, while the unemployment rate held steady at 9.7%. While the numbers got a lift from the government's hiring of 48,000 census workers, private employers added 123,000 jobs in the month.

Steve Benen: "The jobs report is easily the best we've seen since the start of the Great Recession late 2007, and the strongest overall in three years. With revised numbers for recent months, March is now the third month to show positive job growth since the start of the economic downturn, but last month's totals far exceeded the modest totals from November 2009 and January 2010."

Manpower says employment picture is sound

Manpower should know, they are everywhere.

MILWAUKEE, March 9 (UPI) -- Private U.S. staffing firm Manpower Inc. said Tuesday that prospects for job hunters should improve in the second quarter.

In a recent survey, 73 percent of employers indicated they would keep staff levels unchanged in the second quarter, Manpower said. In addition, employers in 12 out of 13 industry sectors indicated positive Net Employment Outlooks for April through June, "meaning employers in most industry sectors plan to add staff during the second quarter," Manpower said.

"We continue to see encouraging signs in hiring activity in the United States," said Manpower Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jeff Joerres in a statement.

Unemployment Rate Stays at 9.7%

That's okay, I'm sure we'll be looking for some good news next month too. Via Taegan-

"The U.S. economy shed fewer jobs than expected in February and the unemployment rate was steady at 9.7% despite stormy weather on the East Coast last month, which the government said may have temporarily hit payrolls and work hours," the Wall Street Journal reports.

Without the massive snow storms, this might have been a very good report for the White House.

Video- President Obama discusses jobs and the economy during a visit to Savannah, Georgia

Looks like he got a good lunch while he was there too-

President Barack Obama wants reporters to do the unthinkable: keep a secret.

Obama sat down Tuesday afternoon for a Southern-style lunch at Mrs. Wilkes' Dining Room, a popular restaurant and tourist attraction in Savannah, Ga. In front of him was a plate piled high with fried chicken and bowls of beans, sweet potatoes, greens and macaroni and cheese.

Turning to reporters who accompanied him on the trip, Obama said he didn't want to hear any lectures about his cholesterol. And above all, he said, don't tell his wife, first lady Michelle Obama, about his lunch.

First-time jobless claims fall more than expected

Well look at that, another promising sign.

WASHINGTON – The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week to the lowest total in a month, a hopeful sign the job market may be improving.

The Labor Department said that first-time claims for unemployment insurance dropped by 43,000 to a seasonally adjusted 440,000. Wall Street economists expected a smaller decline of 15,000, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.

A Labor Department analyst said the decline largely reflects the end of administrative backlogs in California and other states that had elevated claims in the previous three weeks. The backlogs represented claims that had built up over the Christmas holidays.

The winter storms that have pounded the Mid-Atlantic took place after last week's claims were filed, the analyst said. If they have an effect, it won't be evident until next week's data.

Conservatives try to suspend California's global-warming law

By GottaLaff

I cannot fathom how these people can be so shortsighted. It's beyond comprehension. Do they not realize that all that money they'd supposedly save won't do anyone any good if nobody is around to spend it?

Republican politicians and conservative activists are launching a ballot campaign to suspend California's landmark global-warming law, in what they hope will serve as a showcase for a national backlash against climate regulations.

Supporters say they have "solid commitments" of nearly $600,000 to pay signature gatherers for a November initiative aimed at delaying curbs on the greenhouse gas emissions of power plants and factories until the state's unemployment rate drops.

GOP gubernatorial candidates and Tea Party organizers paint the 2006 law, considered a model for other state and federal efforts, as a job-killing interference in the economy. Talk radio is flailing at what John Kobylt and Ken Chiampou, drive-time hosts on Los Angeles' KFI-AM (640), call "the global-warming final solution act" promoted by "fascist, Nazi" officials.

"We are on fire," said Assemblyman Dan Logue (R-Marysville), a sponsor of the proposed initiative. "People are calling from all over the country. This will be the most intense campaign the state has seen in 50 years."

"We are on fire." Hey Dan Logue, so is the planet.

The measure would halt proposed regulations until the state's jobless rate dips to 5.5% or below for a year. That's a level that California has not seen since 2007.

This is mind-achingly stupid. California's habit of governing via ballot initiative needs to be broken. Schwarzenegger* is proof of that.

*To be fair, he's fighting this campaign. I'll give him that.

Jobless Rate Drops Unexpectedly to 9.7%

Classic good news.bad news. There have been some rumblings that this is really bad news, but I don't understand why yet.

(CBS/AP) The unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly in January to 9.7 percent, while employers shed 20,000 jobs, according to a report that offered hope the economy will add jobs soon.

The unemployment rate dropped from 10 percent because a survey of households found the number of employed Americans rose by 541,000, the Labor Department said Friday. The job losses are calculated from a separate survey of employers.

The department also revised its past employment estimates to show that job losses from the Great Recession have been much worse than previously stated. The economy has shed 8.4 million jobs since the downturn began in December 2007, up from a previous figure of 7.2 million.

That's the most jobs lost in any recession, as a percent of total employment, since World War II.

Cartoon of the Day

Click to enlarge, via.

Source: White House to paint grim fiscal picture

By GottaLaff

So, "Source" says the White House will paint a grim fiscal picture. Source who? They never give their last name. Neither does that ubiquitous scamp, "Sources", come to think of it.

At least "Anonymous Sources" provides both a first and last name:

The White House will predict a record budget deficit in the current fiscal year and more big shortfalls for the next decade in its upcoming budget proposal, a congressional source told Reuters on Sunday.

Oh, now I recognize the name! "Congressional Source". Why didn't they just say so?

In its budget proposal to be released on Monday, the White House predicts a record $1.6 trillion budget deficit for the fiscal year that ends September 30, the Capitol Hill source said.

According to the estimate, deficits will narrow to $700 billion by fiscal 2013 before gradually rising back to $1.0 trillion by the end of the decade, the source said.

Oh, so now it's "The Source" and "Capitol Hill Source". Playing footsie with us are you?

Deficits are expected to rise again toward the end of the decade due to the increasing cost of retirement and healthcare programs as the "baby boom" generation retires. [...]

The grim forecast could help build support for a bipartisan commission proposed by the White House that would recommend ways to address long-term budget problems.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have a call coming in from "Some Say" on line 2.

Poll: Obama still most trusted

Seems to map out what should be done next pretty clearly.

“President Obama’s trust rating remains steady at 54 percent – a number that has not changed since last July, including among independents,” wrote Dick Keil of Public Strategies Inc. in a memo accompanying the poll.

(snip)

The polling also found voters divided on the role of government to address problems. A slim majority of 52 percent said government is trying to do too much; 48 percent said Washington should be doing more. 56 percent said they trusted the government to do “what is right.”

The economy, unsurprisingly, is the top concern of those polled (49 percent), followed by health care (20 percent) and government spending (20 percent).

Arizona state parks on chopping block

After a year of record attendance at state parks, this is going to happen? You'd think Arizona's rather influential Senator would do something about it...

PHOENIX | Arizona is on the verge of permanently closing more than half of its state parks to ease its budget woes — the most drastic such proposal in the nation and one that could mean shutting down some iconic Old West locations.

The plan would close the Tombstone Courthouse and the Yuma Territorial Prison, and shut down parks that draw tens of thousands of tourists a year such as Red Rock State Park in Sedona.

"We don't have a choice. It's either shut them all down right now or shut them down in phases, and we're picking the ones that cost the state money," said Reese Woodling, head of the Arizona Parks Board, which plans on Friday to take up a staff recommendation to close 13 parks by June 3. State officials closed five parks last year.

If the additional closures are approved, two-thirds of the state parks in Arizona will be shut down.

85,000 jobs lost in Dec., but Nov. revision shows jobs growth

Any good news is really good news.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy lost more jobs in December and the unemployment rate was unchanged, as a sluggish economic recovery has yet to revive hiring among the country's employers.

The Labor Department said Friday that employers cut 85,000 jobs last month, worse than the 8,000 drop analysts expected.

(snip)

Revisions to the previous two months' data showed the economy actually generated 4,000 jobs in November, the first gain in nearly two years, while it lost 16,000 more than previously estimated in October. The net result for the two months was a job loss of 1,000

Jobless claims drop two weeks in a row

Bit by bit the sun is peeking thru, great way to head into 2010.

WASHINGTON, Dec. 31 (UPI) -- First-time claims for U.S. unemployment insurance benefits dropped by 22,000 in the week ending Dec. 26, the U.S. Department of Labor said Thursday.

It was the second consecutive week of declines. A week ago, 28,000 fewer first-time claims were filed compared to the previous week.

In the latest report, the 432,000 initial claims contributed to a four-week rolling average of 460,250, which was a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week's average.

Consumer Confidence Hits 3 Month High

Plus home prices remained unchanged, holding onto five months of gains. Looking up.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence improved more than expected in December, hitting a three-month high as job market pessimism eased and consumers' expectations reached a two-year high, according to a private report released on Tuesday. The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes rose to 52.9 in December from a revised 50.6 in November.

Employers see uptick in hiring in 2010

November home sales soar 7.4 percent

Good news where you can get it.

WASHINGTON – Home resales surged to the highest level in nearly three years, reflecting an extraordinary level of federal support that has pulled the housing market back from the worst downturn since the Great Depression.

The National Association of Realtors says sales rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million in November, from a downwardly revised pace of 6.09 million in October.

Sales were 44 percent above last year's levels, a record jump. They had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 6.25 million, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

Cartoon of the Day

Click to enlarge, via.

Electric vehicle maker may bring manufacturing operations to Elkhart County, Indiana

This is huge for my area. There are huge empty manufacturing buildings all over Elkhart from the defunct RV companies.

It was just four months ago that President Obama announced electric truck maker Navistar International would soon hire hundreds of locals to build electric trucks. This week, local leaders say another electric vehicle manufacturer is also interested in calling Elkhart County home.

“This is the cutting edge of plug-in, all-electric vehicles," said County Commissioner Mike Yoder.

Earlier this year, Think North America, a subsidiary of the Norwegian electric car manufacturer Think Global, said Indiana was on the short list of potential states to be home to its U.S. manufacturing operations. Oregon and Michigan were also on the list.

(snip)

But two months ago company officials came back. The potential site: an empty warehouse north of Middlebury, at Indiana 13 and County Road 2.

On Monday, Think North America spokesman Brendan Prebo told WSBT News that while this does not constitute a final decision, "we are at a point where we are focusing on negotiations in Indiana."

Video- Fox's MacCallum notes all-conservative panel "on the same page" in criticizing Obama's econ initiatives

Way to be "Fair and Balanced".