President Obama Gives the GOP Hell in Baltimore by Telling the Truth

By GottaLaff

Your Daily Dose of BuzzFlash via my pal Mark Karlin:

As Harry Truman said just tell the Republicans the truth, and they'll just think it's Hell.

That's what President Barack Obama did in a bravura appearance before a GOP House member retreat in Baltimore on Friday. [...]

Instead, a newly minted feisty Obama returned to his primary campaign style and let them have it. He broke the mold by debunking the premise of almost every "query" by a GOP House member.

For once, the WH had outsmarted the GOP minority by ensuring the cameras recorded something akin to a political massacre. [...]

Obama reminded you why you voted for him; he exhibited a complete mastery of facts, detail, political motivation, hope and common sense. [...]

The GOP knows now that the Scott Brown win isn't going to lead to a cakewalk to victory in 2010. Obama just sent them that message loud and clear. [...]

Don't put that Obama back in the closet.

We want to see it with great frequency.

You can read the whole thing here, and should.

Poll-itics: 538's Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189

By GottaLaff

GObama! Nate the Great:

The last polls have straggled in, and show little sign of mercy for John McCain. Barack Obama appears poised for a decisive electoral victory.

Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana. [Laffy Note: Sorry Padlock!] [...]

We also project Obama to win the popular vote by 6.1 points. [...]

This race appears to have stabilized as of about the time of the second debate in Nashville, Tennessee on October 8th. Since that time, Obama has maintained a national lead of between 6 and 8 points, with little discernible momentum for either candidate. Just as noteworthy is the fact that the number of undecided voters is now very small, representing not much more than 2-3 percent of the electorate. Undecided voters who committed over the past several weeks appear to have broken roughly equally between the two candidates.

Our model forecasts a small third-party vote of between 1 and 2 points total; it is not likely to be a decisive factor in this election except perhaps in Montana, where Ron Paul is on the ballot and may garner 4-5 percent of the vote.

Any forecasting system is only as good as its inputs, and so if the polls are systematically wrong, our projection is subject to error as well. ... [A] McCain win appears highly unlikely. It is also possible, of course, that the polls are shy in Obama's direction rather than McCain's, in which case a double-digit win is possible.

Nor does McCain appear to have much chance of winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote; in fact, our model thinks that Obama is slightly more likely to do so. McCain diverted many of his resources to Pennsylvania, a state where he narrowed Obama's margins somewhat, but which our model concludes that Obama is now virtually certain to win. [...]

Thank you for placing your trust in FiveThirtyEight.com over the course of the past several months. We hope that you will join us both on the website and on HDNet tonight, where I'll be providing election coverage for Dan Rather's team. ...[W]e hope to have several announcements about our future plans in the coming days and weeks.

November 4, 2008: The Stand-Out and "The Maverick"

By GottaLaff

Please note: I changed the post title to accommodate the update. The Stand-Out:

(click on image to enlarge)

H/t: Hilary

UPDATE-- The Maverick:

Via Zina Saunders

NYC

By GottaLaff

Voting on Wall Street:

Obama Quote-O'-The-Day

By GottaLaff

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., left, shake hands with a campaign worker at the UAW Local 550 Union Hall in Indianapolis, Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2008.

(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

"Ok guys, let's go home. It will be fun to see how the story ends."
-- Sen. Barack Obama, quoted by Newsweek, to reporters on his campaign plane last night.

President Obama.

What To Watch For Tonight

By GottaLaff

Reminder: I'll be putting up a livestream Tee Vee Machine so you can watch MSNBC. I'll probably put it up around 3-ish Pacific or so, depending on what's going on.

Meantime, here's what Taegan says to watch for tonight:

7 p.m. -- Polls close in Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina, Virginia and Kentucky.

If Virginia is called quickly for Obama, it means he likely wins the presidential race and Democrats across the country will have a huge night. If it's not called early, it's could be an indication that white undecided voters are breaking to McCain. Prepare for an hour long discussion of the "Bradley effect." If Georgia or Indiana are called early for Obama, it's a leading indicator for a landslide.

In Kentucky, all eyes are on the fate of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

7:30 p.m. -- Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.

Obama victories in North Carolina or Ohio likely seal the deal for him. An Obama win in West Virginia means start looking for Obama coattails in close House and Senate races.

8:00 p.m. -- Polls close in Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

If Pennsylvania is called early for Obama, McCain cannot win. His only real path to the presidency at this point requires he win the Keystone State. An Obama win in Missouri once again means a likely landslide in the electoral college.

9:00 p.m. -- Polls close in Colorado and New Mexico.

Polls indicate both of these swing states should go to Obama. Early calls in each state will have Obama racking up electoral votes quickly.

10:00 p.m. -- Polls close in Iowa, Montana, and Nevada.

If Obama wins in Montana and Nevada, we're looking at a possible political realignment of the Mountain West of the United States.

11:00 p.m. -- Polls close in California and North Dakota.

California is the biggest state of them all with 55 electoral votes and may put Obama over the top. If the election hasn't been decided by now, it's probably become an interesting night for the McCain campaign and Republicans. However, an Obama win in North Dakota means we're witnessing a landslide.

I'm on pins and needles.

Undervotes reported in Palm Beach County, Florida

By GottaLaff

Voters in Florida wait to cast their ballots Tuesday morning, despite problems at some polling stations.

I just voted. There was hardly anybody there, but that's typical for our area. It's a well-run polling place, and since I voted "absentee", all I had to do was hand them my envelope and walk out.

However, not everyone has it as easy as I do:

Florida's Palm Beach County is reporting problems at a couple of polling stations: so-called "undervotes," where machines reject ballots because voters are not filling out the second page of the ballot, a spokesman for the county Board of Elections confirmed. The page contains proposed amendments to the Florida Constitution.

The spokesman said these undervotes are legal. The scanner spits the ballot back and reminds the voter to vote on the second page, the spokesman said, adding that the voter then has the choice of voting or registering the undervote.

He said in some cases people simply forget to fill out the second page, but most voters seem to be intentionally skipping that part of the ballot.

The town of Palm Beach is also reporting minor sporadic voter machine failures, the spokesman said. A handful of machines had to be replaced.

One polling station in the county opened one hour late because of a problem with their precinct voting list.

As I left my polling place, I thought I heard someone say, "It's jamming again." Uh-oh.