Polls and thought from my favorite number cruncher.
ABC / WaPo (10/8-10/11, 766 likely voters, 9/29 results in parenthesis):
Obama: 53% (50%)
McCain: 43% (46%)Zogby Tracking (yesterday's numbers in parenthesis)
The important thing is to always look at all polls. Only the collective polling result matters, so don't get hung up on individual polls. Right now, before these polls are factored in, Pollster.com has Obama lead by 8.3%. That is, in my opinion, the absolute most that Obama could possibly win by. I honestly believe there is nowhere to go but down at this point, but that is just my opinion (although it has reaonble basis in recent history).
Obama: 48% (49%)
McCain: 44% (43%)
Throw in this, 10/13 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 52 , McCain 40 and it looks like a good Monday!!!
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4 comments:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jH2iufUU1f4
Priceless
Can anyone explain why is there is so much difference between the polls? One has Obama up by 10 points and the other by 4. What gives and more to the point which is more accurate?
rk, I haven't looked at Zogby's internals in a while, but it tends to have weighting for party identification that tends to favor the GOP. Also, I don't believe that Zogby weights for age, only gender and race. As a result, numbers for the youngest age groups is under-represented and over-represented for older groups (in comparison to 2004 turnout). This may explain why Zogby trends more Republican than others.
This week's debate (if you can call it a debate which is totally debatable) will be the end of McCain. He's going to come out grumpy and full of bluster. He'll deny stirring up racial hatred against Obama, actually accusing him of starting it. He'll defend Palin's ethics violation by stating it was all a plot by the Democrats and that Palin is the future... D.
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